The Coastal Post - February, 1996

Continuing Earthquake-Nuke Watch

BY KAREN NAKAMURA

Dec. 27: 21:29:58 UTC, 5.2 ground zero, French Mururoa

Dec. 30: 03:25:08 UTC, 5.7 Central East Pacific Rise

12:11:07 UTC, 6.2 Honchu, Japan

12:17:37 UTC, 5.5 Honchu, Japan

16:15:32 UTC, 5.5 Honchu, Japan

Jan. 1: 08:05:11 UTC, 7.7 Sulawesi, Indonesia

Info from National Earthquake Center, Golden, Colorado

This relative quiet after-test period could be reflected in the small size of the test itself. Probably wasn't much bigger than Hiroshima; few tests are smaller.

The French have announced that they will set off one more test before they sign the nuclear test ban treaty.We'll see. Remember, testing resumed just weeks after the last test ban was signed. When the series is finished, the CP will do a wrap-up to see which premises held true.

Interestingly, not only was there volcanic activity from two different volcanos on Sulawesi, two weeks after the latest test, the 5.5 and over quakes only occurred along the Western border of the Pacific plate. Mururoa is situated near the lower curve.

I see a force field pushing underground until it reaches the vulnerable tri-plate area, smashes into the other plates and dissipates along the fault lines.

As previously stated, the area of Tonga, Borneo, Indonesia and Samoa, where three plates meet, is the most active earthquake region in the world. Between 1900-1949, the greater area experienced nearly 25% of the world's quakes.

The percentage of all earthquakes in the plate triangle breaks down like this. Between 1900-1949, W. Samoa and the Solomon islands stood a 5.79% and 2.98% chance of having an earthquake during any given period.

In a five-day period after French underground testing at Mururoa between 1975-188 those numbers shot up to 12.41% and 10.08%.

The present set of tests show this area has been consistently active after Chinese and French testing. Of the 30 quakes registering over 5.5, 9 were in this region. Of that 9, 5 were over 6.0. Every test but September's shows seismic activity in the area.

However, it's important to also realize that there was a 6.2 quake two weeks later.

So, as a "scientific control," we can use the 1951-1988 test figures to allow us to see other test results.

Of the 32 killer quakes which struck between 1951 and 1988, 20 occurred within 5 days after a test somewhere in the world. Twelve came within 24 hours of a test. That's just over a third. Two-thirds were within five days after tests.

The worst were the 1976 quake in China which killed 800,000, the 1970 Peru quake killing 68,000 and Armenia in 1988 which killed 50,000. Two of these, the Chinese and Peruvian were within 5 days after an above-ground test. The Armenian quake was three days after an underground Soviet test.

It should be noted that the January series of winter storms started within the five to ten day time period after the last French test, much as the two-week series of hurricanes in September just after the French tested.

There's been a nice response from readers wanting the entire test series numbers. If I haven't answered you, I'm getting there. I'm getting there. Send a SASE to me c/o P.O. Box 864, Fairfax, CA 94978.