When the Coastal Post began this series on a possible connection between nuclear underground tests and earthquakes, the French had just resumed testing and the Chinese were about to. To check the theory of a connection, I made several predictions based on my observations of tests conducted by the Soviets, French, American and Chinese in the eighties. There would be greater earthquake activity in the five-day period after testing, and on occasion, it would extend up to 10 days. Earthquake activity would be particularly heavy in the Indonesia, Micronesia triangle for two reasons.

The first is obvious. It's the most active earthquake zone in the world, being where three continental plates collide. Second, pressure from the blast pushes out in all directions. Think of photos of the shock wave from a test expanding into the air. Then make that a circle with the core about half a mile down into the crust. Eventually, the shock wave would hit against the already-strained Indonesian triangle located in the same geographical area. Other activity would be on faults meeting at the triangle such as the New Zealand/Australia system, the Indo-China peninsula, China and Japan. That's logical. A force, after rolling into a multi-fault zone, would travel along individual faults for awhile.

Or perhaps an inward wave would activate the great spine of faults that make up the Andes, Rockies and Sierras. The entire area making up the Ring of Fire. I also stated there would be a measurable effect on weather conditions, either magnifying current conditions or creating extremes in the reverse. And, finally, I predicted volcanos would be activated.

I was able to make these predictions because of research conducted by myself but more importantly, by Dr. Gary Whiteford of the University of New Brunswich during the late '80s barrage of tests. During the summer of 1988, for instance, there was a test somewhere in the world approximately once every ten days.

Let's review some of these findings, so we can evaluate recent tests. This information is courtesy of Dr. Whiteford. During the first half of the century, 1900-1950, there was an average of 68 large quakes a year. Between 1950-1988, that average almost doubled to 127. This coincides with the years when testing was most frequent. Of these, 32 were killer quakes (1000 or more deaths). Of the 32, 20 came within five days after a nuclear test. Of those, 12 were on the same day within 24 hours, 3 came within 2 days, 2 after 3 days, and 3 on day 4. The total death count on these 20 quakes is approximately 500,000 to 1,000,000, depending on estimates. A few examples are the Armenian quake in 1988 where up to 50,000 people were killed. The Soviets tested three days before.

A month before, on November 5th, the French tested at the Mururoa Atoll site in the South Pacific. The next day, 600 people were either killed or injured in quakes that ranged from the Indo-China peninsula to China. On November 24, the French tested again. A day later, eastern Canada was rocked by a highly unusual 6.0 quake. The next day, a similar quake hit Central China. Then there's the two June 28th, 1992 earthquakes in Los Angeles. Nuclear tests took place at the Nevada Test Site, just north of Las Vegas, on June 19th and 23rd, 10 and 5 days respectively, before the two quakes on the 28th.

To understand the magnitude of the forces released, let's examine their size in comparison with a familiar object. For instance, the Hiroshima and Nagasaki blasts were 13 and 20 kilotons respectively. Compare those to the 120 kilotons denoted in the last French test of January 27, 1996 (21:29:57.3 UTC) and the Chinese quake February 3 (11:14:23 UTC) six and a half days later. There's three different sizes to most tests; 2-20 kilotons, small, 20-80 medium and the rarely used huge 80-150 kilotons. Most countries banned anything over 150 kilotons. In this context, why is an interesting question. Force sizes are hard to confirm, as the exact blast size is usually confidential. A typical public announcement will say, as did the French, "under 120 kilotons." Or "between 20 and 80 kilotons." The National Earthquake Center in Golden, Colorado, for instance, measures zero ground seismic activity. Subsequent earthquakes don't always shake neatly in accordance with original blast size but note the test/quake sizes presented here generally hold to this pattern.

You've heard anti-nuke organizations talking about the danger of the Mururoa test site. In a 1989 documentary, the Costeau Society showed man-made fractures along the side of the atoll. The atoll is built on a dormant volcano, tests take place in the volcano's core. Jean-Michel Costeau warned further testing could cause more fracturing to the atoll and possibly leak radioactivity into the ocean. His prediction of leakage was fulfilled. Radioactivity was found after the December 27, 1995 test. Measurements of further fracturing are hampered by French resistance.

However, the public has been enlightened to the fact the denotation vaporizes the stone around it for several hundred feet then melts the rock around it. Minutes later it solidifies into a kind of radioactive glass ball. Sweet. And this has been done over a hundred times. In June of 1989, a New Zealand geophysics official stated the fragile Mururoa Atoll had been "knocked into bits and has had all it can take." The same year, amid intense pressure from Southern Pacific rim governments, the French switched to the less used Fangataufa Atoll. When tests were resumed last year, they returned, except twice, to the Mururoa Atoll amid world-wide outcry. The two, 110 and 120 kilotons, were conducted on Fangataufa. Got to wonder why.

If there's a connection between tests and quakes, and evidence is mounting that there is, the only way the world can scientifically find out the "if and how" is with the aid of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). However, reduced funding has seriously cut into their resources. Responding to the military's claim that test and quakes are coincidence, Dr. Whiteford states, "The geographical patterns in the data, with a clustering of earthquakes in specific regions matched to specific test dates and sites, do not support the easy and comforting explanation of 'pure coincidence'."

Recent revelations that Soviet scientists used small nuclear blasts to map the earth's crust under their feet puts the testing/earthquake connection into a whole different ballpark. It proves something is happening. That, and the increasingly successful use of small blasts (dynamite) by USGS seismologists to chart faults in the Bay Area, indicates the ability of blast waves to shake the ground. Proponents contacted "open-minded scientists" within the USGS hoping they would, at least, check the theory out with their computers. Now that the tests are supposedly complete, let's see what we find in regard to weather, volcanos and quakes. Our information being the least complete on weather, let's look at it first and volcanos next.

Take the Oakland hills fire in October of 1989. The Americans set off a test two days before in Nevada. The day before, if you remember, the weather was unusually humid, the heat stifling. It seemed to bake any moisture out of the earth. The excessive dryness certainly added to the tinderbox effect. There's also the Midwest drought of '88 wherein every time rainclouds began to form, another test was set off and seemed to dissipate the collecting H2O.

Those are examples. Let's look at the present series. After the Chinese test of August 17 and the French test of September 5, there was that long series of hurricanes that stacked up one on top of the other. Yes, it was hurricane season and a hurricane was already active in the Caribbean on the day of the French test. But under normal circumstances, this hurricane would have built, done its damage for a couple days and faded away. However, that hurricane stayed around for two weeks and on its heels, literally stacked up and pushing from the east was a series of four more storms. Highly unusual. The test of December 7 saw the Washington D.C. winter shut down. The test of January 27 saw flooding in Seattle and ice flow jams on the East Coast. A combination of rain and below-zero weather broke records across the Midwest.

On to volcanos. A day after the Chinese test of August 17, a dormant volcano began erupting on Montserrat in the Caribbean Islands. When was the last time anyone remembers a volcano erupting there? Let's look at volcanic activity after the 100-110 kiloton blast on Fangataufa on October 2. Mount St. Helena's volcano suffered a series of small tremors. The next two weeks, New Zealand's Mount Puapehu showed some of its most intense activity after spectacularly erupting at a ski resort. Java's Mount Merapi volcano showed intense activity starting on October 9. Japan's Mount Hosshu erupted for the first time in 257 years. Is the force hitting the earth's liquid core, for instance, and causing it to bounce (slosh) around? Its final ricochet, say, after originating on Polynesia, hitting Indonesia, Alaska, Japan, ends up with a 3.8 burp in Healdsburg. Some burp, but it could have started in Indonesia as a 7.0.

Now, let's examine our quake information. The recent Chinese quake was six days and a half after that huge French test on January 27. Still one has to feel they were connected. Everyone was waiting for a big quake and it hit. And how about the big Chinese test in August of 1994? There was a huge earthquake that day in the same country which killed hundreds. May 17 there was the Chinese test registering 6.1 ground zero (gz). Sixteen hours later there was a 7.7 off New Caledonia in the Indonesian triangle. Fourteen hours later there was a 6.5 aftershock in the same area. Watch how the quake size often follow suit. On August 17, the 5.4 gz Chinese test. Twenty-one hours later, there was a 5.3 near Guam, five hours later a 5.8 near the Falkirks in the Atlantic and four minutes after a 5.7 in the same area. September 5, there was a French test, 4.7 gz (20 kilotons). The next day there were three quakes in California registering 3.3, 3.2 and 4.9 respectively. Five days later there was the Healdsburg quake. Ridgecrest shook like jelly for weeks with tiny quakes. As did the Indonesian area after several tests.

Another comparison on test size holding to quake size. October 2 there was a French test at Fangataufa Atoll, 6.0 gz (110 kilotons). Nineteen hours later, there was a 7.0 Sumatra quake. October 9, a 7.6 Mexican quake. October 27 at Mururoa, 6.0 gz. October 29, a 5.7 in Azerbaijan. Thirteen hours later, a 6.1 in Indonesia. Sixteen hours later, a 5.5 in the Fuji Islands. On the 30th, a 5.8 in the Solomon Islands and a 5.6 in the Aleutian Islands in Alaska. November 1 a 6.3 in Central Chile, a 5.6 in Rilki, Japan, and a 5.5 in Kurdistan.

Are you watching possible ricochets? November 21 at 5.0 gz at Mururoa. On the 22nd, eight hours later that 7.1 in Israel. On the 23rd, a 6.4 in New Zealand. The 24th, a 6.4 in Kuril Islands, Japan and a 5.8 Japan and a 5.8 on the Aleutian islands, Alaska. November 26, a 5.8 near the Solomon Islands. November 27, 6.0 again in the Kurils in Japan. December 27, 5.2 gz, Mururoa Atoll. December 30, 5.7 Central East Pacific Rise. Then a 6.2 in Honchu, Japan and six and a half minutes later, an aftershock of 5.5 in Honchu. January 1, a 7.7 in Seloweise. Here's a deviation. On January 27, a 5.4 gz at Fangataufa. But remember this was a 120 kiloton test. Then nothing for two days. Late on the 29th, there was a 6.2 in the Kuradec Islands near Indonesia and a 6.7 aftershock 30 minutes later. The 30th found a 6.2 at Wellington, New Zealand. Thirty minutes later, a 6.7 aftershock in the same area. Again the Kurils rocked at 5.9 on the 31st. And on February 1, a 5.8 in the same area. On the 3rd, six days later, the disputed 6.4 (the Chinese say 7.0) and destructive quake in China.

Can we doubt there's some kind of connection that should be investigated by the scientific community and those findings made public? Instead, the USCS's funds have been drastically cut. And finally, a public thanks to the doubtful but kind people at the USGS National Earthquake Center in Golden, Colorado who provided the facts. If you want a one sheet exact time run down, send me a self-addressed stamped envelope. If you want me to add Dr. Whiteford's finding from the '80s plus other juicy material, send a 52 cent stamp and 9x12 envelope. Karen Nakamura, P.O. Box 864, Fairfax, CA 94978.